Russo-Ukraine War will not end soon -Polish expert

By Ayanna Dezyrein Zoleta

Expect the Russia-Ukraine war–akin to a high-stakes game of poker–to draw out even longer.

This was the analysis of geopolitical expert Krystian Chołaszczyński of the Academy of Social and Media Culture (AKSIM) of Torun, Poland, which he delivered as part of a lecture at the University of Santo Tomas on Thursday.

“The war will not end soon… This war will be long,” he said as he discussed reasons why Russia might view pacification as difficult.

Chołaszczyński said the war was a case of “geopolitical poker” with a new world order at stake.

“The conflict, and especially its course and diplomatic and political efforts, resemble a hard game of poker. Russia, at the table where the pot is still growing, maintains a cold negotiating poker face; even though the first hands turned out to be bluffs and the cards were hit hard, the game is still in progress,” he said.

Russia’s greatest asset at the poker table, enabling it to withstand the war even further by providing it with cash flow, is the import of highly processed goods and the export of energy sources, and the dependence of the largest European economies on them.

The poker reference does not end with Russia’s case, as the speaker also stated that escalation or reduction in “poker bidding” is also the future of Eastern countries.

Despite its distance from the theatre of war that is Ukraine, Chołaszczyński said that China is a key strategic player in this game and for China’s own game.He stated that a “weak”–not destroyed–Russia is favorable for China as it allows the country to expand its sphere of influence into other territories.

Russia’s current predicament has already seen China making inroads into Russia’s backyard in Central Asia, specifically in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, among others, aside from its continued assertion of power in the South China Sea.

In the end, he noted that while the players in this geopolitical poker have all been nation-states, he speculated that, amid the continued loss of life and property in the war, there may still be other players and actors in this game who have not yet shown their hand.

“There may be many more losers in this war than we think. The question arises whether, apart from the aforementioned great players at the poker table, someone else is not dealing cards and pushing up the auctions, like some non-state actor,” Cholaszczyński stated, ending his lecture.

In reaction to Prof. Chołaszczyński’s lecture, Prof. Lino Baron of UST’s Department of Interdisciplinary Studies shared his opinion that there is no way for Putin to win the war.

“Putin can never win this war… There is no way Putin can make Ukrainians trust Russia again… Putin is misplaced in this century. Putin is a curse on Russian people,” said Baron.

Cholaszczyński also answered shared his insights on how the Russo-Ukrainian war will impact Asian countries.

He pointed out that people should stop looking at the war as something local, given that it will impact everyone. He stated that we will all be part of this new “post-Post Cold War system.”

“Think loudly of what is going on… Educate ourselves, share our knowledge through practices and experience… By thinking loudly, we can stop what’s going on.” the lecturer added.

This is the second time that Chołaszczyński gave a lecture at the university, as he also visited the country in 2018 to discuss Russia’s geopolitical expansion.

The lecture was held almost one year and one month to the day that Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 as part of Chołaszczyński’s visit to UST under the Erasmus+ educational mobility framework of the European Union.